2024 Big 12 Football Bowl Projections Following Week 11

SALT LAKE CITY – Seven teams have qualified for a bowl game in the Big 12, and three more have five wins. Double-digit teams going to the postseason seem like a great possibility.

Ten teams seem to be the maximum, barring a few upsets over the past few weeks. Being the Big 12, there seems to be a decent possibility of a head-scratching upset.

However, the Big 12 being a multi-bid league to the College Football Playoff seems unlikely with BYU being the clear front-runner on that aspect.

TCU became the latest team from the conference to get to the magic six-win mark to become bowl-eligible after taking to Oklahoma State, 38-13.

That win for the Horned Frogs also took the Cowboys out of bowl contention with its seventh loss of the year.

We’ve said it before… we’ll say it again… there’s nothing quite like #Big12FB in November.

What’s Next Is Decided Now. pic.twitter.com/C3viIhp7Rd

— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) November 10, 2024

West Virginia is one step closer to a bowl game with its fifth win by defeating Cincinnati by a touchdown. Utah had a chance to get one step closer to bowl eligibility but they lost a heart-breaking game, 22-21, to rival and undefeated BYU. The Utes are sitting at four wins and need to win their final two games to get a bowl game.

Big 12 Bowl Projections: Just One Playoff Team?

With Iowa State losing back-to-back games and now has two losses which makes a playoff appearance highly unlikely and the Cyclones would need some help to get into the Big 12 title game.

BYU has the inside track as the current leader in the Big 12 with zero losses and a decent chance to make the College Football Playoff if their only loss is in the conference title game. Lurking in the background is Colorado with one conference loss and a clear path to the Big 12 championship game, and then one win away from likely earning a playoff bid.

As for the rest of the conference, it seems that 10 teams will be in a bowl game. Only Oklahoma State is out of the running for six wins and a bowl berth as they are 3-7. Technically, 15 teams can get to six wins but that won’t happen.

Four-win teams in the mix are UCF, Utah, and Houston, but ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Knights the best chance to get to six wins. Their odds aren’t great at a 36.4% chance to get to six wins and to the postseason.

For another week, there will be nine teams in our Big 12 bowl projections and one in the college football playoff.

Previous Big 12 Bowl Projections: Preseason | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10

Guaranteed Rate Bowl

Thursday, December 26
5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Matchup:  Nebraska vs. Baylor

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Friday, December 27
12:00 or 3:30, ESPN
Amon G Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Matchup: Navy vs. Cincinnati

AutoZone Liberty Bowl 

Friday, December 27
7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN
Matchup: Arkansas vs. TCU

DIRECTV Holiday Bowl

Friday, December 27
8:00 p.m. ET, FOX
Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA
Matchup: Clemson vs. Arizona State

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl

Friday, December 27
10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Reliant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Matchup: Missouri vs. Colorado

Pop-Tarts Bowl

Saturday, December 28
3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
Matchup: Miami vs. Kansas State

Valero Alamo Bowl

Saturday, December 28
7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
Matchup: Washington State vs. Iowa State

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

Saturday, December 28
9:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Independence Stadium, Shreveport, LA
Matchup: Army vs. West Virginia

Texas Bowl

Tuesday, December 31
3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Matchup: Texas A&M vs. Texas Tech

Miami Falls Out Playoff Rankings After Being Upset

Shakeups are happening within the College Football Playoff as the calendar further gets into November. The Miami Hurricanes luck finally ran out after being upset, 28-23, to Georgia Tech. That loss — similar to Iowa State losing last weekend — drops Miami out of the playoff race, for now.

Replacing Miami is the SMU Mustangs who are undefeated in ACC play and just one loss overall which came at the hands of BYU. SMU comes in as the four seed after Week 11 and in a good position to earn a first-round bye in the playoff.

Speaking of the BYU Cougars, they remain undefeated in a tougher-than-expected challenge against rival Utah, winning 22-21. BYU is the one Big 12 team that to date is avoiding the upset bug. Iowa State lost is second conference game and is now on the outside looking in for the Big 12 title game.

The Cougars have a clear path to the three-seed and depending on how much the SEC is beating each other up, being the No. 2 seed is not out of the question for BYU.

Other changes this week include Ole Miss getting back into the field as the 12th seed after defeating Georgia in a convincing 28-10 win. The Bulldogs fall from No. 2 to No. 9. Taking over the top SEC spot is Texas and shoots up to No 2.

Quarterfinal Games

No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 8/9 Winner

No. 2 Texas vs. No. 7/10 Winner

No. 3 BYU  vs. No. 6/11 Winner

No. 4 SMU vs. No. 5/12 Winner

Opening Round Games at campus sites

No. 12 Ole Miss at No. 5 Indiana

No. 11 Boise State at No. 6 Ohio State 

No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Penn State

No. 9  Georgia at No. 8 Notre Dame

First Four out: Tennessee, Miami, Texas A&M, Clemson

Next Group of Five: Army, UNLV, Tulane, Louisiana

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