Jazz On Pace For Worst Record, Top Draft Odds
Nov 8, 2024, 4:20 PM | Updated: 4:26 pm
Utah Jazz head coach Will Hardy (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
SALT LAKE CITY – Now 10 percent of the way through the NBA season, the Utah Jazz own the league’s worst record, and are on pace to have the best draft lottery odds.
Though not the worst start in franchise history, the team is currently on pace to finish the organization’s fewest wins in a season.
Related: Poor Second Half Dooms Jazz Against Bucks
Jazz On Pace For Top Draft Lottery Odds
The Jazz sit at just 1-7 on the season, tied with the Philadelphia 76ers (1-6) for the league’s fewest wins, and the Toronto Raptors (2-7) for the most losses.
The team’s .125 winning percentage through eight games is the third-worst in its 51-year history, trailing only the winless 2013-14 and 1979-80 rosters.
In 2014, the Jazz finished with a record of 25-57, tied with the Boston Celtics for the fourth-worst record in the league, but slipped to the fifth pick in the draft lottery before selecting Dante Exum.
The current NBA lottery odds courtesy of @tankathon. pic.twitter.com/lgek8K1iNY
— Ben Anderson (@BensHoops) November 8, 2024
In 1980, the team finished with a record of 24-58, tied with the Golden State Warriors for the second-worst record in the NBA, and wound up with the second-overall pick.
The team picked future Rookie of the Year Darrell Griffith as the second selection, which remains the highest draft slot in franchise history.
If the Jazz finish with the worst record in the NBA this season, they’ll have a 14 percent chance of drafting first, a 13.4 percent chance of drafting second, a 12.7 percent chance of drafting third, a 12.0 percent chance of dating fourth, and a 47.9 percent chance of falling to fifth.
How Have 1-7 Teams Finished The Season Previously?
With the NBA season still in its infancy, how likely are the Jazz to hold onto the worst record in the league after their 1-7 start?
Dating back to 2019 when the NBA last overhauled the lottery process, here’s how the worst teams in the league through the first eight games fared in the draft.
Last season the Memphis Grizzlies owned the worst record in the NBA through eight games, matching this year’s Jazz with an identical 1-7 record.
At season’s end, the Grizzlies owned a record of 27-55, seventh-worst in the league, and fell to ninth in the draft lottery where they drafted Zach Edey.
In 2022, both the Houston Rockets and Orlando Magic were 1-7 through eight games.
The Rockets ended up with the third-worst record in the NBA at 22-60 while the Magic finished the season sixth-worst at 34-48.
Houston wound up with the fourth overall pick in the draft lottery where they selected Amen Thompson, while Orlando stayed put at sixth where it selected Anthony Black.
We officially have the 2021 NBA Draft order 🏀 pic.twitter.com/osGsoUzyh4
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) June 23, 2021
In 2021, the Rockets, New Orleans Pelicans, and Detroit Pistons all started the season 1-7.
The Rockets finished with the league’s worst record at 20-62, but fell to third in the draft lottery where they selected Jabari Smith Jr.
The Pelicans rallied to win 36 games, qualifying for the postseason, and their 15th overall draft pick was used by the Charlotte Hornets to select Mark Williams.
Detroit finished with the league’s third-worst record at 23-59, but slipped to fifth in the draft where they selected Jaden Ivey.
In 2020, the Pistons again were just 1-7 and finished with the second-worst record at 20-52. Detroit won the top selection in the draft lottery and picked Cade Cunningham.
*UPDATED DRAFT ORDER*
1) Pelicans
2) Grizzlies
3) Knicks
4) Hawks (from Pelicans via Lakers)
5) Cavaliers
6) Timberwolves (from Suns)
7) Bulls
8) Pelicans (from Hawks)
9) Wizards
10) Hawks (from Mavericks) pic.twitter.com/QO4weamaoj— ESPN (@espn) June 20, 2019
In 2019, the Pelicans and the New York Knicks were 1-7 through eight games.
The Pelicans finished with the 13th-worst record at 28-36 (pre-bubble standings) and selected Kira Lewis with the 13th overall pick.
The Knicks finished with the sixth-worst record at 21-45, but slipped to eighth in the lottery where they selected Obi Toppin.
In 2018, the Washington Wizards, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Phoenix Suns were each 1-7 through eight games.
The Wizards finished the season with a 32-50 record, sixth-worst in the league, but fell to ninth in the lottery where they selected Rui Hachimura.
The Cavaliers finished tied with the Suns for the second-worst record at 19-63, but dropped to fifth in the draft where they selected Darius Garland.
The Suns dropped to sixth in the draft where they selected Jarrett Culver who was traded to the Minnesota Timberwolves.
What Do Previous 1-7 Teams Reveal About The Jazz?
Between 2019 and 2023, 12 separate teams opened the year with a 1-7 record, but only the 2021 Rockets finished the season with the league’s worst record.
Despite finishing last in the standings, the Rockets slipped to third in the draft.
The 2020 Pistons are the only team over the last five seasons to win the draft lottery after a 1-7 start.
With the first overall pick in the NBA Draft, the Detroit Pistons select @CadeCunningham_ from the @okstate. Welcome to the Motor City, Cade! #DetroitUp | @DraftKings pic.twitter.com/mN8quV3b8l
— Detroit Pistons (@DetroitPistons) July 30, 2021
The average final standings of teams who have started 1-7 since 2019 is just over the fifth-worst (5.1) finish, with the average pick falling to seventh.
To date, Cavaliers guard Darius Garland is the only player selected by a team who started the season 1-7 since 2019 to be named an All-Star.
The 2021 Pelicans are the only team to open the season 1-7 who wound up making the playoffs, finishing outside of the draft lottery entirely.
The Good News, And The Bad About Jazz Draft Lottery Odds
Though Jazz fans may have their eyes set on making the top overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, recent history reveals that a 1-7 start is a poor indicator of where the team will finish in the standings.
On average, teams who start the season 1-7 wind up with the fifth-best odds of winning the lottery. That equates to a 42.1 percent chance of drafting in the top four, and a 57.9 percent of drafting 5-9.
However, if the Jazz do finish the season with the league’s worst record outright, they’ll be guaranteed to draft no lower than fifth, their highest pick since 2014.
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Ben Anderson is the Utah Jazz insider for KSL Sports and the co-host of Jake and Ben from 10-12p with Jake Scott on 97.5 The KSL Sports Zone. Find Ben on Twitter at @BensHoops or on Instagram @BensHoops.
