JJ & Alex: BYU Should Be In Mix For The College Football Playoff
Oct 1, 2024, 3:48 PM
Kalani Sitake enters his ninth season as the head coach of the BYU football program. (Spenser Heaps, Deseret News)
(Spenser Heaps, Deseret News)
SALT LAKE CITY – All the typical caveats apply here as college football is entering its sixth week and the first rankings release of the College Football Playoff does not start until Tuesday, Nov. 5. That does not stop fans, media and everyone else from projecting each week what teams can make the field in a new 12-team playoff. But, is BYU Football a College Football Playoff team?
During the Big 12 media days, Commissioner Brett Yormark said his conference was the deepest in all of FBS, and he might be right.
After five weeks of play in the league, who would have thought that BYU, UCF, and Texas Tech would be 2-0 in league play, or that Oklahoma State is 0-2 in conference play?
With the conference as competitive as advertised, it seems that BYU has the resume to be considered for not only a spot in the College Football Playoff but also earning a first-round bye meaning the Cougars would have to win the Big 12.
The Big 12 is wide open.
So, why not put an undefeated #BYU team in the College Football Playoff in our latest bowl projections?https://t.co/W3gj0edZf0
— KSL Sports (@kslsports) October 1, 2024
Multiple outlets have placed BYU as the Big 12 champion and earned a four seed. These rankings are a snapshot in time but why not include the Cougars this week?
BYU’s 18-15 slugfest win on the road against SMU is looking really good. The Mustangs have scored 211 points all year and that puts them fifth in all of FBS. Removing the BYU result, SMU is averaging 49 points per game.
The Cougars also dominated Kansas State which is in the race for the Big 12 title after its dominant win over Oklahoma State.
Simulating BYU’s Big 12 Chances + College Football Playoff Seeding
In addition to a handful of outlets putting BYU in the playoff after Week 5, ESPN’s playoff predictor goes a bit further in projecting its field. As of now, the Cougars are given a 23.7% chance to make the College Football Playoff field, per ESPN’s Football Power Index. That is currently second in the Big 12 after Iowa State’s 25%.
The way that ESPN’s playoff predictor works is that it uses its FPI to go through the rest of the season, and is a choose your own adventure path to the College Football Playoff.
The three toughest games are chosen to pick. For BYU, those games are hosting Oklahoma State, and the Cougars are given a 53% chance to win that game, at UCF which is the lowest chance to win at 39%, and then traveling to Utah where the odds to win are at 46%.
For this exercise, the choice is to have BYU win against Oklahoma State and Utah but lose on that long road trip to the Bounce House in Orlando against UCF.
The next step to choose is if BYU makes the conference title game, plus if they win or lose. With the Cougars at the top of the conference and having played the second-toughest strength of record behind Alabama with four of the top five spots belonging to the SEC.
The choice is to go optimistic so the pick is that BYU wins the Big 12 and this would all but guarantee the Cougars to the playoff.
As for how the bracket shakes out, here is what ESPN’s simulation pops out, which is odd, to say the least.
BYU getting a three-seed in this scenario is not far-fetched. Seeing Washington State not only get an 11 seed as an at-large team but then winning two games to get to the semifinals seems like a reach for these computers.
With it only being Week 6 of the college football season, there are still a lot of games to be played. These projections will become more realistic with more games played each week.
Don’t Just Trust The Computers
Even the most diehard of diehard BYU fans could not have imagined this team being 5-0 and being discussed as a true Big 12 and playoff team.
In the preseason, the Cougars were projected to finish 13th out of 16 teams by the media. That has all changed as Jeremiah Jensen of JJ & Alex on the KSL Sports Zone said – he believes the Cougars are for real.
“BYU is really good. They are 5-0, because they’ve earned it,” Jensen said. “All the projections, all the things we looked at in the offseason, just throw it away. We were wrong.”
Jensen admits to flawed media projections.
“BYU is a good football team.” he said. “You ask me today, on September 30 of 2024, who the best team in the Big 12 is?’ My answer firmly is BYU.”
The big caveat in that quote by Jensen is the date of Sept. 30. BYU being off this upcoming week will help a lot with players returning from injuries and getting healthy for its next set of games.
It is early for this playoff conversation for BYU, but the Cougars defense is legit and will keep them in any game of the year.
The offense has had some issues but if they can play anywhere close to what that unit did in the first half of Baylor where they were up 28-7, then BYU is definitely a Big 12 contender and is in the mix for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Tune into JJ & Alex every Monday through Friday, 3-6 p.m. on 1280 AM and 97.5 FM, or subscribe to the podcast. Also, download the all-new KSL Sports app on iOS or Android.
