BYU vs. Kansas State: Game Day Preview Plus Score Prediction
Sep 21, 2024, 1:07 AM
PROVO, Utah—For the first time since New Year’s Day 1997, it’s a game day featuring BYU vs Kansas State.
BYU hosts No. 13 Kansas State—this time as Big 12 foes.
Saturday night will be the ninth meeting all-time between the two programs. The series is tied at four, with BYU winning the last two meetings in the 1997 Cotton Bowl and the Wildcats’ last visit to Provo in 1977.
Both teams come into this matchup with a perfect 3-0 record after sweeping through non-conference play. Each squad wants to start on the right foot to kick off the Big 12 portion of their schedules.
BYU vs. No. 13 Kansas State
Location: LaVell Edwards Stadium
Kickoff: 8:30 p.m. (MDT)
TV: ESPN
Radio: KSL NewsRadio (102.7 FM, 1160 AM)
Three Game Day Thoughts
1. An opportunity BYU has been dreaming of for decades
BYU has dreamed of this opportunity for decades. A chance to play a high stakes power conference game in front of a national audience.
BYU has a laundry list of big games in its 100 seasons as a program. But this is the first time the big game stage involves being in a Power Four conference.
Last year, BYU’s first Big 12 game was on the road at Kansas, and its first home game was against Cincinnati, a fellow newcomer.
With an undefeated record and a nationally ranked opponent who is an original Big 12 member, this is the setup BYU has dreamed of since the heyday of the LaVell Edwards era in the 1980s.
These opportunities don’t always come, so it’s a chance to break and make a name for themselves in the new-look Big 12.
2. Jake Retzlaff can silence the critics with a big performance
Despite being 20th nationally in passing yards (841) and leading BYU to a 3-0 start this season, Jake Retzlaff still has his share of detractors.
His three-turnover performance against SMU two weeks ago and some of the near interceptions in the win at Wyoming are areas where he can improve. However, Retzlaff didn’t fumble the ball last week.
feels goooooooood to be home
— BYU FOOTBALL (@BYUfootball) September 21, 2024
He also showed good pocket presence and an ability to take off and run.
In tonight’s game against Kansas State, Retzlaff has to be at his best. Kansas State has the personnel on defense to make this a long night for the former JUCO star signal-caller.
If he performs at a high level and BYU comes away with the victory or is competitive until the very end, he can silence any questions about people questioning him as the QB1.
3. BYU can’t be one-dimensional offensively
There are questions for BYU football entering tonight’s game at running back. LJ Martin and Hinckley Folau Ropati are banged up and questionable to play against Kansas State.
If those two cannot go, they need more production from Miles Davis than they got last week against Wyoming. Enoch Nawahine is expected to be available tonight after sitting out a week ago due to shoulder pain.
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BYU also has freshmen Pokaiaua Haunga and Sione I. Moa to round out the group of running backs, along with quarterback Jake Retzlaff, another number K-State has to account for in the run game.
BYU needs a ground attack to keep K-State’s defense on its heels. If BYU becomes one-dimensional, it could give people flashbacks to some of the struggles BYU experienced against 3-3-5 Big 12 defenses a season ago (TCU, Iowa State).
Two BYU vs Kansas State Questions
1. What tricks does Jay Hill have up his sleeve to slow down K-State QB Avery Johnson?
Last week at Wyoming, the BYU defense primarily played out of its base looks. There wasn’t much novelty to the play call sheet against a Pokes team that is one of the worst offenses in the FBS this season.
Tonight is a different story as BYU looks to slow down Kansas State star quarterback Avery Johnson.
#BYU DC Jay Hill expects Micah Harper, Mory Bamba, and Logan Lutui to all be available this Saturday.
Hill said Bamba “looked good in practice” today.#BYUFootball pic.twitter.com/5gGumcJR4O
— Mitch Harper (@Mitch_Harper) September 17, 2024
It’s a game in which BYU defensive coordinator Jay Hill has to unleash the depth of his playbook. BYU made roster retention a top priority. It’s paying off to open this season, as BYU’s defense is playing faster due to their knowledge of Hill’s scheme.
Whether spying on Johnson or applying pressure, BYU has to find a way to contain Johnson on the ground and force him to pass. If they do that, they can go into the fourth quarter with a chance to pull the upset.
Kansas State’s offense has scored at least 28 points in 11 consecutive games. That’s the most in the FBS, five games better than the next closest, the Texas Longhorns.
2. What impact will special teams have on this game?
BYU and Kansas State enter this game on the heels of performances where their special teams generated touchdowns a week ago. Last week, K-State’s Dylan Edwards returned a 71-yard punt return for a touchdown in the 31-7 blowout over Arizona. That earned him Big 12 Special Teams Player of the Week honors.
103-YARD KICKOFF RETURN TD FOR @BYUfootball! pic.twitter.com/d4lVvgfHnJ
— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) September 15, 2024
One day later, BYU’s Keelan Marion had a 100-yard kick return for a touchdown in the win over Wyoming.
Historically, Kansas State has prided itself on being “Special Teams U,” but last year, they were underwhelming. The addition of Edwards has been a significant boost to their return game, and the third phase of the game has to be dialed in for both sides to come away with the win.
One Score Prediction for BYU vs Kansas State
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This is the perfect spot for BYU to play this game against K-State. BYU comes into the matchup relatively healthy, except for the running back unit.
The Cougar defense is talented to slow down K-State’s offensive attack. BYU standouts Tyler Batty, Blake Mangelson, Jack Kelly, and Jakob Robinson all shine in a collective effort to slow down Johnson.
Retzlaff avoids the disastrous turnovers and gets solid production through the air.
Then, you can’t underestimate the impact of BYU’s home environment at night.
BYU pulls off the upset and earns Kalani Sitake one of the best wins of his tenure as head coach.
Score Prediction: BYU 27, Kansas State 24
Mitch Harper is a BYU Insider for KSLsports.com and hosts the Cougar Tracks Podcast (SUBSCRIBE) and Cougar Sports Saturday (12–3 p.m.) on KSL Newsradio. Follow Mitch’s coverage of BYU in the Big 12 Conference on X: @Mitch_Harper.
