Jazz Mailbag: Which Jazz Player Has The Highest Potential?

SALT LAKE CITY – Welcome to the Utah Jazz mailbag where this week we look at which player already on the roster has the highest overall potential.

Each week we will send out a prompt on X asking for the questions you have about the Jazz.

Then, we’ll respond to as many as we can in that week’s mailbag.

Mailbag: Which Jazz Player Has Highest Potential?

Who has the higher theoretical ceiling – Hendricks or Williams?

— James McKinney (@Jampod2k) September 10, 2024

Question: Who has the higher theoretical ceiling – Taylor Hendricks or Cody Williams?

Answer: James, this is an excellent question, so I will expand it to include all Jazz players, i.e. who has the highest ceiling on the roster overall (though I will also pick between these two).

First, let’s clarify potential based on the values of the modern NBA, and why I suspect you chose these two players specifically.

The most valuable asset in today’s NBA is shooting which has been at a premium across the league for the last decade.

The second most important asset is positional size which still has enormous importance in most games, especially as bigger players continue to add shooting to their repertoire.

From there, shot creation, playmaking, and rim protection/defensive impact begin to play a larger role.

step 👆
knock 👇#TakeNote | @tayxhendricks pic.twitter.com/t4H98DCUsm

— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) July 17, 2024

So, let’s look at how those values apply to Williams and Hendricks.

While it’s hard to say with any certainty, I’m giving Hendricks the nod as a shooter despite his 33 percent success rate during the Vegas Summer League.

Hendricks knocked down 61 of his 155 three-point attempts at Central Florida and followed it up by connecting on 53 of his 140 attempts as a rookie last season.

That’s a combined average of 38 percent over two seasons which leads me to believe he’s going to have a healthy career as a shooter in the NBA.

Though Williams knocked down a higher percentage of his threes in college (41 percent), he also had just 41 attempts. For comparison, Hendricks had 41 attempts in his first 10 games of college, while it took Williams 24 games to reach that mark.

Until Williams takes and makes more threes, the edge belongs to Hendricks.

Coast to Coast Cody? YES PLZ 🤩 pic.twitter.com/Xzzwi42eFE

— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) July 19, 2024

Now, size can be a bit deceiving.

Hendricks stands a full two inches taller than Williams, but positionally, I think Williams has the edge.

Through the small sample size we’ve seen from both players, I see Williams as a true wing spending time at the two, the three, and maybe spot minutes at the four as he matures.

Ideally, his comfort with the ball in his hands will allow him to operate as a playmaker at shooting guard, while using his size to overwhelm smaller players. Then, as he plays bigger, his athleticism and slithery movement will be an advantage against slower frontcourt defenders.

Hendricks on the other hand projects as more of an average-sized four, or undersized five who stretches defenses as a knockdown shooter. Barring a significant jump in his on-ball tools, I don’t foresee a lot of shot creation or playmaking in his future.

Defensively, Hendricks has an early edge, and his value as a rim-protector is higher than Williams’s as a perimeter defender, though both have a ways to go before we can say anything definitive about them on that side of the ball.

Cody’s getting dialed in early 🎯 pic.twitter.com/2kV4xpXTHR

— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) July 17, 2024

So, to answer your question, I think Williams has an edge over Hendricks when it comes to potential, though both have bright futures, and Hendricks may have the higher floor with more proof of concept.

Now, let’s revisit the bigger question of which Jazz player has the highest overall potential.

Based solely on shooting and size, the two most valuable assets in today’s NBA, Lauri Markkanen not only has the best combination of the two, but the highest upside to further develop them.

At 27 years old, Markkanen may be viewed as having a lower upside than his 20-year-old counterparts, but there is still room for him to grow as an offensive weapon.

Last season Markkanen set a new career high with 8.0 three-point attempts per game and had the second-best shooting year of his career at .399 from downtown.

🇫🇮 𝟭𝟬𝟬𝟬 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲𝘀 for the 7-footer from Jyväskylä 🇫🇮

Congratulations, @MarkkanenLauri!#SuperiorMoment | @michelobultra pic.twitter.com/TlhJKgDlX9

— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) March 26, 2024

As the Jazz continue to try to develop Markkanen into a more dangerous scorer, I expect they will ask him to either create more offense off the dribble or shoot more threes, and the answer is probably both.

Markkanen has not yet fleshed out his tools as a creator, so the easiest pathway to improve scoring may be to up his three-point attempts.

Historically, only Steph Curry, Damian Lillard, and Klay Thompson have averaged more than 10 three-point attempts per game while knocking down over 40 percent of their tries, but I think Markkanen has a chance to add his name to the list over the next two years.

And, at seven feet tall, Markkanen’s elite physical tools should allow him to age gracefully through the second half of his contract extension, even if he loses some of his athleticism.

While he may see a decrease in his above-the-rim finishing, he’ll continue to add strength, and his value as a pick-and-pop forward, small-ball center, and overall floor spacer could realistically improve.

I hope I’m not too late to get this added.

Last week on your show with Jake you made a brief comment about keeping an eye out for the Jazz and Jalen Williams.

Can you elaborate further?

— Benjamin Smith (@Benjiman31) September 10, 2024

Question: Last week on your radio show you made a brief comment about keeping an eye out for the Jazz and Jalen Williams. Can you elaborate further?

Answer: Thank you for not only listening to our Jazz Notes podcast, but the Jake and Ben Show from 10-noon Monday through Friday on 97.5 The KSL Sports Zone.

To elaborate, over the last few years, it seems the pie-in-the-sky targets for the Jazz in their rebuild have been Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Doncic.

After making a trip to the Finals last season and seeing a successful roster built out around him, it’s probably time to punt on Doncic.

Related: Can Cody Williams Be Better Than His Brother Jalen?

As the Bucks enter the twilight years of their championship window, Antetokoumpo remains the absolute best-case scenario for the Jazz in regards to big game hunting, but at nearly 30, with a growing list of late-season injuries, he may not fit the team’s timeline even a few years from now.

If that is the case, the Jazz will have to pivot toward a younger generation of targets to chase with their treasure chest of draft picks and young talent.

Enter Jalen Williams.

When trying to pluck stars off their current rosters, you must look at teams who may find themselves in a financial crunch, and which players might fit within your culture.

if I had my OKC uniform this flick would have been so crazy !!! pic.twitter.com/yY8bA9W7y4

— therealjalenwilliams (@jdubwttp) July 7, 2024

The Thunder are not yet at the point where they have to make difficult financial decisions, but with Alex Caruso hitting free agency next summer, and the potential for Isaiah Hartenstein, Lugentz Dort, Chet Holmgren, and Williams all needing new deals in the summer of 2026, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander needing a super-max extension the year after, they could get very expensive very quickly.

Then, mix in the fact that of the 12 sets of brothers in the NBA last season (excluding rookies Amen and Ausar), six have found opportunities to play alongside one another, and a future pairing of the Williams is not out of the realm of the possibilities.

To clarify, Jalen Williams is currently a foundational piece in Oklahoma City, but among future Jazz targets, I’d keep a closer eye on his trajectory than most other players in the NBA.

And, I’d bet the Jazz made sure the elder Williams was shown the red carpet when he’s been in Utah to begin his brother’s rookie journey.

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