2024 Big 12 Bowl Projections Following Week 1

SALT LAKE CITY — The season’s first week is unequal across the college football landscape. Week one can provide little information for teams that play an FCS foe, or an unexpected result may alter prognostications. These bowl projections will be fluid through September as the quality of opponents varies wildly, and off-season question marks become in-season answers.

After the first week, a few results within the Big 12 raised some eyebrows. Texas Tech had a scare, needing 52 points and overtime to defeat the FCS’s Abilene Christian Wildcats. The Red Raiders made the initial bowl projections for a bowl game, and the near-miss shouldn’t take a hit.

Check out how #Big12FB fared on 2⃣0⃣2⃣4⃣ Opening Weekend ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/8ElX8S4h86

— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) September 1, 2024

One Big 12 newcomer who got an unexpected win but is still on the outside looking in for a bowl game is Arizona State. The Sun Devils dominated Wyoming 48-7 at home, blowing out a team that won nine games a year ago.

If teams win six games, there are plenty of opportunities to go bowling. The former Pac-12 schools (Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah) are still obligated to the conference’s four tie-ins. The Big 12 has six primary bowl options, two backups, and the College Football Playoff available for its members.

RELATED: Preseason Big 12 Bowl Game Projections

Despite the multitude of opportunities, Arizona State misses the cut this week. The Sun Devils were expected to beat Wyoming; the final score indicates they could be better than many expected.

The teams going bowling this week will be the same but with a smattering of changes in opponents and locations. It will still take weeks of games to figure out who should be slotted where, but at least the majority of the FCS games are done for after Week 1.

Ten Teams Going Bowling

The number of Big 12 teams going to the postseason remains at 10, but there will be a shift in who makes the College Football Playoff.

Guaranteed Rate Bowl

Thursday, December 26
5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Matchup: Maryland vs. TCU

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Friday, December 27
Time TBA, ESPN
Amon G Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Matchup: North Texas vs. Texas Tech

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Friday, December 27
7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN
Matchup: Auburn vs. UCF

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl

Friday, December 27
10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Reliant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Matchup: Missouri vs. Kansas

Pop-Tarts Bowl

Saturday, December 28
3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
Matchup: Clemson vs. Arizona

Valero Alamo Bowl

Saturday, December 28
7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
Matchup: Washington vs. Kansas State

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

Saturday, December 28
9:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Independence Stadium, Shreveport, LA
Matchup: Oregon State vs West Virginia 

TaxAct Texas Bowl

Tuesday, December 31
3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Matchup: Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl

Friday, January 3
4:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Gerald R Ford Stadium, University Park, TX
Matchup: South Florida vs Iowa State

College Football Playoff Projections

With a 12-team playoff, which includes conference champions, there will be more meaningful football later in the calendar. Those battles will keep interest alive in late November compared to the former four-team field.

These projections will be reset each time as the results matter. That explains why Georgia Tech is currently the No. 4 seed as the projected ACC champion due to its win over Florida State in Week 0.

The Group of 5 spot is also getting a shakeup this week, with UNLV getting the nod. The Rebels went on the road and easily took care of Houston out of the Big 12. Yes, not much is expected of the Cougars this year, but this UNLV win is the best among the G5 group.

Boise State was also considered for this spot. The Broncos needed every bit of Ashton Jeanty’s six rushing touchdowns to hold off Georgia Southern, but Liberty’s defense didn’t show up against FCS’ Campbell. Others, like Appalachian State and Memphis, did their job but against FCS teams.

One team that may have already secured a spot is Notre Dame. Yes, it is just one week, but the Fighting Irish went on the road to defeat Texas A&M in a 23-13 rock fight.

The Irish schedule is manageable the rest of the way. They do host Louisville and Florida State, which could offer some resistance. Their two most challenging games away from South Bend, Indiana, are playing Georgia Tech in Atlanta and a true road game to wrap up the season at USC.

The Irish should rise in the rankings, but in the playoff bracket, the highest seed they can be is No. 5, as conference champions are the only teams allowed a bye.

Quarterfinal Games

No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 8/9 Winner

No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 7/10 Winner

No. 3 Utah vs. No. 6/11 Winner

No. 4 Georgia Tech vs. No. 5/12 Winner

Opening Round Games at campus sites

No. 12 UNLV at 5 Notre Dame

No. 11 USC at No. 6 Penn State

No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Alabama

No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 8 Texas

First Four out (in no order): Boise State, Tennessee, Kansas State, Oregon

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