Predictive Rating Forecasts Mediocre Season For BYU Football In 2022

Jul 26, 2022, 10:06 PM | Updated: 10:07 pm

BYU Football, Kalani Sitake, Head Coach...

Can BYU football coach Kalani Sitake lead the Cougars to another 10-win season in 2022? ESPN FPI doesn't see that happening. (Scott G. Winterton, Deseret News)

(Scott G. Winterton, Deseret News)

PROVO, UtahΒ – BYU football has a demanding schedule ahead of them in 2022. With five games against Power Conference opponents and road games to Liberty and Boise State, BYU’s final Independent tour will produce a lot of challenging games.

The big question is, how many games can BYU win this fall? If you’re turning to predictions from ESPN’s FPI, the outlook for BYU in 2022 isn’t great.

Despite being No. 1 nationally in returning production, the predictive rating system forecasts BYU to finish with a mediocre 7-5 record.

ESPN FPI has BYU rated No. 46 in their preseason ratings.

ESPN FPI projects BYU football to finish with seven wins

That would be a big step back for a BYU program that has produced back-to-back double-digit win seasons. BYU also has quarterback Jaren Hall returning.

After one full year as the starting signal-caller for BYU, Hall has drawn some growing praise as a potential first-round NFL draft pick.

Last year, the FPI nailed BYU’s regular season record in the preseason. While many projections saw BYU having a coming-to-earth moment after losing Zach Wilson to the NFL, the ESPN FPI had the Cougars going 10-2. BYU’s regular season record in 2021? 10-2.

The ESPN FPI event correctly projected one of the losses last year, a road visit to Baylor. They forecasted BYU to lose to USC, while they also gave BYU a 78% chance of defeating Boise State.

Here are the win probability projections the ESPN FPI gives BYU for each game in the 2022 season.

at USF (Sept. 3)

Win probability: 64.8%

Opponent FPI rank: 86

Baylor (Sept. 10)

Win probability: 42.8%

Opponent FPI rank: 22

at Oregon (Sept. 17)

Win probability: 25.9%

Opponent FPI rank: 23

Wyoming (Sept. 24)

Win probability: 86.6%

Opponent FPI rank: 99

Utah State (Sept. 29)

Win probability: 82%

Opponent FPI rank: 88

vs. Notre Dame (Oct. 8)

Win probability: 18.4%

Opponent FPI rank: 5

Arkansas (Oct. 15)

Win probability: 46.4%

Opponent FPI rank: 26

at Liberty (Oct. 22)

Win probability: 58.1%

Opponent FPI rank: 76

East Carolina (Oct. 28)

Win probability: 80%

Opponent FPI rank: 77

at Boise State (Nov. 5)

Win probability: 43%

Opponent FPI rank: 47

Utah Tech (Nov. 19)

Win probability: 99.7%

Opponent FPI rank: N/A (FCS)

at Stanford (Nov. 26)

Win probability: 52.9%

Opponent FPI rank: 62


One of the noteworthy aspects of BYU’s schedule in 2022 is that they don’t have a cellar dweller anywhere. In most Independent years, you could point to two or three teams that were sub-100 in the ratings. Outside of FCS Utah Tech, that team might not be on the schedule this year.

The good news for BYU is they have the opportunity to prove the computer ratings wrong when toe meets leather in actual games. BYU kicks off the 2022 season on Saturday, September 3 at 2 p.m. (MT) against the South Florida Bulls in Tampa on ESPNU.

Mitch Harper is a BYU Insider for and host of the Cougar Tracks Podcast (SUBSCRIBE) and Cougar Sports Saturday (Saturday from 12–3 p.m.) on KSL Newsradio. Follow him on Twitter:Β @Mitch_Harper.

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Predictive Rating Forecasts Mediocre Season For BYU Football In 2022